Politics · Open for opinions
Will any U.S. court formally classify prediction markets (such as Kalshi or Polymarket) as gambling by March 2027?
The legal battle over the classification of prediction markets as gambling is ongoing. 36 opinions, 81% No
- Yes — 19%
- No — 81%
Deadline: March 10, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 36 opinions
Resolution rules
The legal battle over the classification of prediction markets as gambling is ongoing. Kalshi and Polymarket traded $12 billion in the last month, and critics are warning about the 'commoditization' of real-world outcomes, putting pressure on regulators and courts.
Source: www.facebook.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido como 'Sim' se uma decisão judicial transitada em julgado ou liminar vinculante de qualquer corte federal ou estadual dos EUA determinar explicitamente que contratos negociados em plataformas de mercados de previsão constituem jogo regulado pela legislação aplicável, conforme noticiado por fontes jurídicas primárias (PACER, decisões judiciais oficiais) ou veículos especializados (Law360, Reuters Legal). Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 81% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 19 points, a wrong one costs about 81.