Finance · Open for opinions
Will the CFTC initiate new formal regulatory action against Polymarket by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket was banned from operating in the US by the CFTC in 2022. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Polymarket was banned from operating in the US by the CFTC in 2022. The Trump administration dropped Biden-era investigations against the platform. Recently, suspicious accounts ('orca accounts') with a 97.2% accuracy rate in military markets raised new regulatory scrutiny.
Source: futurism.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido como 'Sim' se o U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publicar comunicado oficial, ordem de enforcement ou processo administrativo formal contra a Polymarket até 31/12/2026, conforme registros públicos do site cftc.gov ou cobertura confirmada por Reuters ou Bloomberg.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.