Finance · Open for opinions
Will the cumulative prediction volume on elections on Kalshi and Polymarket exceed $1 billion by November 30, 2026?
With over $750 million already traded in 2026 midterm contracts, the market is evaluating whether the combined volume will hit the… 76 opinions, 75% Yes
- Yes — 75%
- No — 25%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 76 opinions
Resolution rules
With over $750 million already traded in 2026 midterm contracts, the market is evaluating whether the combined volume will hit the historic $1 billion mark.
Source: www.bonus.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 05/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 30/11/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se o volume financeiro acumulado negociado em contratos de eleições de 2026 somados entre Kalshi e Polymarket atingir ou ultrapassar US$ 1,0 bilhão até 30/11/2026, conforme métricas públicas oficiais do The Block, dados das próprias plataformas ou apuração da Reuters/Bloomberg. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 75% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 25 points, a wrong one costs about 75.