Crypto · Open for opinions
Will the Clarity Act become law in the US by December 31, 2026?
Odds for the Clarity Act becoming law before 10/01/2027 rose to 53% on Kalshi, and the probability of approval still in 2026 is at… 31 opinions, 71% No
- Yes — 29%
- No — 71%
Deadline: December 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 31 opinions
Resolution rules
Odds for the Clarity Act becoming law before 10/01/2027 rose to 53% on Kalshi, and the probability of approval still in 2026 is at ~30% on Polymarket, with a Senate cloture vote (requiring 60 votes) as the next test.
Source: tradersunion.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido como 'Sim' se o Clarity Act receber assinatura presidencial e for publicado no Federal Register até 31/12/2026, conforme registro oficial do Congress.gov ou Casa Branca. Caso contrário, 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 71% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 29 points, a wrong one costs about 71.