Finance · Open for opinions
Will Polymarket remain the world's largest prediction market in December 2026?
Polymarket is described as the world's largest prediction market, with 500 active markets just on Trump. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Polymarket is described as the world's largest prediction market, with 500 active markets just on Trump. However, Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC in the US, is growing rapidly and competing for leadership in the sector.
Source: polymarket.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se em dezembro de 2026 o Polymarket registrar o maior volume mensal de negociações entre todas as plataformas de mercado de previsão, conforme dados públicos do Dune Analytics ou relatório setorial amplamente reconhecido. Resolve 'Não' se outra plataforma (ex: Kalshi) superar seu volume mensal.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.