Politics · Open for opinions
Will the CFTC publish a proposed rule restricting political predictions by public officials by November 30, 2026?
Measures regulatory response to pressures against conflicts of interest between 10/21 and 11/30 [2]. 85 opinions, 60% No
- Yes — 40%
- No — 60%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 85 opinions
Resolution rules
Measures regulatory response to pressures against conflicts of interest between 10/21 and 11/30 [2].
Source: vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 21/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 30/11/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a CFTC publicar proposta de norma regulatória restringindo negociações de derivativos eleitorais por parlamentares ou funcionários públicos até 30/11/2026, conforme registro no cftc.gov ou Federal Register. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 60% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 40 points, a wrong one costs about 60.