Finance · Open for opinions
Will the U.S. Congress pass any legislation regulating prediction markets by the end of 2026?
A Notus report (09/2026) indicates that legislative efforts to create rules for prediction markets are stalled in Congress, even… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
A Notus report (09/2026) indicates that legislative efforts to create rules for prediction markets are stalled in Congress, even with Kalshi's growing lobbying in Washington. Platforms valued at billions of dollars operate in an uncertain regulatory zone.
Source: www.notus.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o Congresso dos EUA aprovar e enviar ao presidente para sanção algum projeto de lei com foco em regulamentação de mercados de previsão (prediction markets) até 31/12/2026, conforme registro no Congress.gov. Resolve como 'Não' caso contrário.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.