Finance · Open for opinions
Will the commercial US dollar close below R$ 4.94 on any day until 10/31/2026?
Following the sharp drop in the exchange rate in reaction to the first round of the 2026 elections, the market is debating how far… 84 opinions, 88% No
- Yes — 12%
- No — 88%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 84 opinions
Resolution rules
Following the sharp drop in the exchange rate in reaction to the first round of the 2026 elections, the market is debating how far the currency can retreat.
Source: exame.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 06/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a taxa oficial de fechamento do dólar comercial (Ptax de venda) for inferior a R$ 4,94 em qualquer dia útil até 31/10/2026, conforme divulgado pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB). Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 88% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 12 points, a wrong one costs about 88.