Technology · Open for opinions
Will Kalshi surpass Polymarket in monthly trading volume by December 2026?
Growing debate over the competition between Kalshi and Polymarket in the prediction market, especially after Kalshi's expansion into… 44 opinions, 75% No
- Yes — 25%
- No — 75%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 44 opinions
Resolution rules
Growing debate over the competition between Kalshi and Polymarket in the prediction market, especially after Kalshi's expansion into sports betting and massive user onboarding for the World Cup.
Source: nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução 'Sim' se relatório de dados públicos (Dune Analytics, The Block ou outra fonte de dados on-chain/oficial) ou anúncio das próprias plataformas indicar que o Kalshi registrou volume mensal de negociações superior ao Polymarket em qualquer mês até dezembro de 2026. Caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 75% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 25 points, a wrong one costs about 75.