Politics · Open for opinions
Will Lula's positive government approval (great/good) exceed 45% in any large-scale national opinion poll by January 2027?
Folha de S.Paulo and other media outlets regularly track federal government approval ratings. 88 opinions, 63% No
- Yes — 38%
- No — 63%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 88 opinions
Resolution rules
Folha de S.Paulo and other media outlets regularly track federal government approval ratings. Recent economic performance, with record employment and falling unemployment, may impact popular approval.
Source: www1.folha.uol.com.br
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se ao menos uma pesquisa de opinião nacional de institutos reconhecidos (Datafolha, Ipec, Quaest ou equivalente) registrar avaliação positiva (ótimo + bom) do governo Lula acima de 45% entre 2026-10-31 e 2027-01-31. Fonte: divulgação oficial do instituto responsável pela pesquisa.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 63% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 37 points, a wrong one costs about 63.