World · Open for opinions
Will there be a US federal court decision on Kalshi or Polymarket derivatives by 10/31/2026?
US courts are evaluating whether prediction contracts fall under derivatives and gambling laws. 15 opinions, 53% No
- Yes — 47%
- No — 53%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 15 opinions
Resolution rules
US courts are evaluating whether prediction contracts fall under derivatives and gambling laws.
Source: vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 04/09/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos anteriores não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se uma corte federal dos EUA emitir sentença ou decisão liminar relativa à regulação da Kalshi ou Polymarket perante a CFTC até 31/10/2026, verificável via sistema PACER ou Reuters. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 53% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 47 points, a wrong one costs about 53.