Politics · Open for opinions
Will the U.S. Supreme Court accept the case that will determine whether prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are regulated by states or the federal government?
According to Politico (09/03/2026), a petition was filed with the U.S. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
According to Politico (09/03/2026), a petition was filed with the U.S. Supreme Court to decide whether states or the federal government (via CFTC) should regulate prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. If accepted, it would be a landmark case for the industry.
Source: www.politico.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o Supremo Tribunal dos EUA (SCOTUS) emitir decisão formal aceitando (certiorari) o caso sobre regulação de mercados de previsão, conforme confirmado em comunicado oficial do tribunal ou cobertura do SCOTUSblog. Resolve como 'Não' se o tribunal negar o pedido ou não se pronunciar até a data de encerramento.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.