Science · Open for opinions
Will the weekly El Niño temperature anomaly (Niño 3.4) reach +2.5°C according to NOAA between 09/17 and 10/31/2026?
Consider publications between 09/17 and 10/31 from the official NOAA bulletin, which has already recorded a 2°C anomaly in the Niño… 37 opinions, 65% No
- Yes — 35%
- No — 65%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 37 opinions
Resolution rules
Consider publications between 09/17 and 10/31 from the official NOAA bulletin, which has already recorded a 2°C anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region in previous weeks.
Source: www.climatempo.com.br
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 17/09/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se o relatório semanal oficial do Climate Prediction Center da NOAA (EUA) indicar uma anomalia de temperatura da superfície do mar igual ou superior a +2,5°C na região Niño 3.4 em qualquer atualização divulgada até 31/10/2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 65% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 35 points, a wrong one costs about 65.