Finance · Open for opinions
Will the 10-year US Treasury yield fall below 4.5% by February 28, 2027?
Shortly after the Democratic victory in the November 2026 midterms, the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to the 4.90%–4.94% range,… 89 opinions, 70% No
- Yes — 30%
- No — 70%
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 89 opinions
Resolution rules
Shortly after the Democratic victory in the November 2026 midterms, the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to the 4.90%–4.94% range, suggesting markets are betting on lower fiscal pressure and less geopolitical escalation under a divided government starting January 2027.
Source: www.cushmanwakefield.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se a taxa de rendimento (yield) do U.S. Treasury Note de 10 anos fechar abaixo de 4,50% em qualquer pregão entre 6 de novembro de 2026 e 28 de fevereiro de 2027, conforme divulgado pelo Departamento do Tesouro dos EUA (treasury.gov) ou pelo Wall Street Journal Markets Data. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 70% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 30 points, a wrong one costs about 70.