Finance · Open for opinions
Will the CFTC announce a formal lawsuit or sanction against Kalshi or Polymarket by November 30, 2026?
Consider formal regulatory measures by the CFTC announced between October 8 and November 30, 2026. 79 opinions, 65% No
- Yes — 35%
- No — 65%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 79 opinions
Resolution rules
Consider formal regulatory measures by the CFTC announced between October 8 and November 30, 2026.
Source: vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 08/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 30/11/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a Commodity Futures participação Commission (CFTC) protocolar formalmente processo administrativo, ordem sancionadora ou ação civil contra KalshiEX LLC ou Polymarket por wash participação até 30/11/2026, conforme divulgado em cftc.gov ou por Reuters, Bloomberg ou AP. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 65% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 35 points, a wrong one costs about 65.