Science · Open for opinions
Will the FDA or NMPA approve at least one new CAR-T cell therapy by October 31, 2026?
Considers new CAR-T therapy approvals by regulatory bodies between 09/29 and 10/31/2026. 73 opinions, 60% No
- Yes — 40%
- No — 60%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 73 opinions
Resolution rules
Considers new CAR-T therapy approvals by regulatory bodies between 09/29 and 10/31/2026.
Source: www.nature.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 29/09/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos anteriores não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a FDA (EUA) ou a NMPA (China) publicar aprovação regulatória oficial de uma nova terapia com células CAR-T até 31/10/2026, verificável nos portais oficiais fda.gov ou nmpa.gov.cn. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 60% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 40 points, a wrong one costs about 60.