Science · Open for opinions
Will ESA or Arianespace successfully perform an orbital launch by October 31, 2026?
Consider independent European space missions and launches scheduled between 09/19 and 10/31. 42 opinions, 55% No
- Yes — 45%
- No — 55%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 42 opinions
Resolution rules
Consider independent European space missions and launches scheduled between 09/19 and 10/31.
Source: www.nature.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 19/09/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos anteriores não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a Agência Espacial Europeia (ESA) ou a Arianespace realizarem com sucesso ao menos uma missão de lançamento orbital até 31/10/2026, conforme publicado nos comunicados oficiais do portal da ESA (esa.int) ou da Arianespace. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 55% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 45 points, a wrong one costs about 55.