Science · Open for opinions
Will the anomaly in the Niño 1+2 region exceed +2.0°C in a NOAA report by 10/31/2026?
Coastal El Niño recorded extraordinary warming in the eastern Pacific in the first week of October. 76 opinions, 64% Yes
- Yes — 64%
- No — 36%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 76 opinions
Resolution rules
Coastal El Niño recorded extraordinary warming in the eastern Pacific in the first week of October.
Source: metsul.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 05/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a NOAA registrar anomalia de temperatura da superfície do mar igual ou superior a +2,0°C na região Niño 1+2 em atualização oficial semanal publicada até 31/10/2026, conforme dados do Climate Prediction Center (NOAA). Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 64% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 36 points, a wrong one costs about 64.