Finance · Open for opinions
Will more than 3 new U.S. states file lawsuits against prediction markets (Kalshi or Polymarket) by December 31, 2026?
According to the NYT, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are in growing conflict with U.S. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
According to the NYT, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are in growing conflict with U.S. states. Connecticut has already filed a lawsuit; the trend indicates that other states may follow the same path.
Source: www.nytimes.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se, a partir de 27/08/2026 e até 31/12/2026, ao menos 4 estados norte-americanos diferentes (contando Connecticut como 1) ajuizarem ações oficiais contra Kalshi, Polymarket ou plataformas similares de mercado de previsão. Fonte: registros públicos de tribunais estaduais e anúncios oficiais das procuradorias.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.