World · Open for opinions
Will the 10-year US Treasury yield exceed 5% before November 20, 2026?
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.650% (08/20/2026). 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: November 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.650% (08/20/2026). Global inflationary pressures, rising government deficits, and massive debt issuance by tech companies to finance AI are pushing yields higher.
Source: www.wsj.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se o rendimento diário de fechamento do Treasury de 10 anos (US10Y) registrar valor acima de 5,00% em qualquer dia útil até 19/11/2026. Referência atual: 4,650%. Fonte: US Treasury / WSJ Market Data.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.