Science · Open for opinions
Will the weekly El Niño anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reach +2.5°C or higher in a NOAA bulletin by 10/31/2026?
With El Niño already registering a 2°C anomaly, NOAA warns of a greater than 90% chance of extreme intensification in the spring. 36 opinions, 56% No
- Yes — 44%
- No — 56%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 36 opinions
Resolution rules
With El Niño already registering a 2°C anomaly, NOAA warns of a greater than 90% chance of extreme intensification in the spring.
Source: www.climatempo.com.br
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 16/09/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos anteriores não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a Administração Nacional Oceânica e Atmosférica (NOAA), via portal do Climate Prediction Center (CPC), registrar anomalia semanal de temperatura da superfície do mar igual ou superior a +2,5°C na região Niño 3.4. Caso essa marca não seja oficialmente atingida ou confirmada pela NOAA até 31/10/2026, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 56% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 44 points, a wrong one costs about 56.