Politics · Open for opinions
Will U.S. states succeed in establishing their own regulation of prediction markets, independent of federal rules, by March 2027?
A bipartisan group of Republican states claims to be the regulator of prediction markets, in direct dispute with federal… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: March 7, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
A bipartisan group of Republican states claims to be the regulator of prediction markets, in direct dispute with federal authorities, while Kalshi and Polymarket grow rapidly and attract Supreme Court attention.
Source: www.ketk.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se ao menos um estado americano promulgar lei ou regulação estadual específica para mercados de previsão que entre em vigor sem ser bloqueada por ordem judicial federal, confirmado por fonte oficial estatal ou veículo jornalístico de referência (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) até 07/03/2027. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.