Finance · Open for opinions
Will Brazil's nominal deficit exceed 10% of GDP in the 12 months ending December 2026?
Brazil's nominal deficit reached 9.99% of GDP in the 12 months through 2025, with an average of 8.6% of GDP between 2023 and 2025. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: February 20, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Brazil's nominal deficit reached 9.99% of GDP in the 12 months through 2025, with an average of 8.6% of GDP between 2023 and 2025. The market remains skeptical about fiscal adjustment regardless of the 2026 election outcome.
Source: www.infomoney.com.br
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o Relatório de Política Fiscal ou Nota de Política Fiscal do Banco Central do Brasil (bcb.gov.br) divulgado até fevereiro de 2027 apontar déficit nominal acima de 10% do PIB para os 12 meses encerrados em dezembro de 2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.