Science · Open for opinions
Will NOAA classify the El Niño event as 'Very Strong' in the report by October 31, 2026?
Consider the NOAA diagnostic update for El Niño between 10/11 and 10/31. 79 opinions, 54% Yes
- Yes — 54%
- No — 46%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 79 opinions
Resolution rules
Consider the NOAA diagnostic update for El Niño between 10/11 and 10/31.
Source: www.newscientist.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 11/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se o boletim oficial ENSO Diagnostic Discussion do Climate Prediction Center da NOAA (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) registrar formalmente o evento de El Niño como 'Very Strong' (ou anomalia no índice Niño 3.4 igual ou superior a 2,0 °C) até 31/10/2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 54% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 46 points, a wrong one costs about 54.