Science · Open for opinions
Will the SST anomaly in the Pacific (Niño 3.4) be +1.5°C or higher in a NOAA report by October 31, 2026?
Considers official measurements of El Niño intensity in the Equatorial Pacific between 10/01 and 10/31. 74 opinions, 58% Yes
- Yes — 58%
- No — 42%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 74 opinions
Resolution rules
Considers official measurements of El Niño intensity in the Equatorial Pacific between 10/01 and 10/31.
Source: metsul.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 01/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se algum relatório semanal ou mensal divulgado pelo Climate Prediction Center da NOAA registrar anomalia de temperatura da superfície do mar (TSM) na região Niño 3.4 igual ou superior a +1,5°C até 31/10/2026, conforme dados do boletim oficial ENSO da NOAA/CPC. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 58% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 42 points, a wrong one costs about 58.