Science · Open for opinions
Will the Kilauea volcano have its alert level raised to 'WARNING' by the USGS by October 31, 2026?
Consider official volcanic activity bulletins issued by the USGS between 10/10 and 10/31/2026. 79 opinions, 59% No
- Yes — 41%
- No — 59%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 79 opinions
Resolution rules
Consider official volcanic activity bulletins issued by the USGS between 10/10 and 10/31/2026.
Source: www.sciencenews.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 10/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se o Serviço Geológico dos Estados Unidos (USGS / Hawaiian Volcano Observatory) emitir boletim oficial classificando o vulcão Kilauea no nível de alerta 'WARNING' (Aviso) até 31/10/2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 59% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 41 points, a wrong one costs about 59.