Finance · Open for opinions
Will the CFTC issue a formal enforcement action against insider trading practices on prediction market platforms by January 31, 2027?
With the rapid growth of Kalshi and Polymarket, cases of insider trading have been identified with increasing frequency on these… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
With the rapid growth of Kalshi and Polymarket, cases of insider trading have been identified with increasing frequency on these platforms, drawing attention from regulators.
Source: www.instagram.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se a CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) publicar ordem, multa ou ação formal de enforcement direcionada especificamente a insider trading em plataformas de mercado de previsão (como Kalshi ou Polymarket) até 31/01/2027. Fonte: seção de enforcement do site oficial da CFTC (cftc.gov).
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.