Science · Open for opinions
Will the weekly temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region exceed +2.0°C by October 31, 2026?
El Niño continues to break intensity records months before its typical peak period in the Equatorial Pacific. 73 opinions, 60% Yes
- Yes — 60%
- No — 40%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 73 opinions
Resolution rules
El Niño continues to break intensity records months before its typical peak period in the Equatorial Pacific.
Source: metsul.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 29/09/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a anomalia semanal de TSM na região Niño 3.4 for igual ou superior a +2,0°C em qualquer relatório do Climate Prediction Center (CPC/NOAA) publicado até 31/10/2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 60% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 40 points, a wrong one costs about 60.