Science · Open for opinions
Will ESA successfully conduct at least one official orbital launch by October 31, 2026?
Evaluates the schedule for Europe's space launch autonomy between 09/22 and 10/31. 57 opinions, 54% No
- Yes — 46%
- No — 54%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 57 opinions
Resolution rules
Evaluates the schedule for Europe's space launch autonomy between 09/22 and 10/31.
Source: www.nature.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 22/09/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a Agência Espacial Europeia (ESA) conduzir com sucesso ao menos um lançamento de foguete orbital (como Ariane 6 ou Vega-C) até 31/10/2026, conforme boletins e comunicados oficiais no portal da ESA (esa.int). Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 54% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 46 points, a wrong one costs about 54.