Science · Open for opinions
Will the thermal anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reach at least +2.5°C in an official NOAA report by October 31, 2026?
Consider measurements between 09/17 and 10/31 with the increasing intensity of the El Niño phenomenon. 38 opinions, 61% No
- Yes — 39%
- No — 61%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 38 opinions
Resolution rules
Consider measurements between 09/17 and 10/31 with the increasing intensity of the El Niño phenomenon.
Source: www.climatempo.com.br
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 17/09/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 31/10/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) registrar em seus boletins oficiais semanais da Climate Prediction Center anomalia igual ou superior a +2,5°C na região Niño 3.4 até 31/10/2026. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 61% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 39 points, a wrong one costs about 61.