Finance · Open for opinions
Will global trading volume in prediction markets exceed US$ 80 billion in 2026?
The combined volume of Kalshi and Polymarket was about US$ 9 billion in 2024, jumped to more than US$ 40 billion in 2025, and the… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The combined volume of Kalshi and Polymarket was about US$ 9 billion in 2024, jumped to more than US$ 40 billion in 2025, and the sector continues to accelerate in 2026.
Source: www.linkedin.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se relatórios públicos de analistas de mercado ou publicações especializadas (ex.: Dune Analytics, relatórios setoriais) confirmarem que o volume combinado de plataformas de mercados de previsão (incluindo Kalshi e Polymarket) atingiu mais de US$ 80 bilhões em 2026. Resolve como 'Não' caso contrário. Resolução após publicação dos dados anuais consolidados, até 31/01/2027.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.