Finance · Open for opinions
Will Brazil's nominal deficit exceed 9% of GDP in the 12 months ending December 2026?
Central Bank data show an average nominal deficit of 8.6% of GDP between 2023-2025 and 9.99% in the most recent 12 months. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Central Bank data show an average nominal deficit of 8.6% of GDP between 2023-2025 and 9.99% in the most recent 12 months. Analysts remain skeptical about fiscal adjustment regardless of the election outcome.
Source: www.infomoney.com.br
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve com base nos dados oficiais de resultado fiscal do Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) referentes aos 12 meses encerrados em dezembro de 2026, publicados no relatório de Nota de Política Fiscal do BCB. Se o déficit nominal acumulado em 12 meses até dez/2026 for superior a 9% do PIB, resolve 'Sim'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.