World · Open for opinions
Will the 2-year US Treasury note yield reach or exceed 5% by the end of 2026?
On October 14, 2026, the 2-year T-Note yield rose 13 basis points to 4.92%, its highest level since September 29. 82 opinions, 67% Yes
- Yes — 67%
- No — 33%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 82 opinions
Resolution rules
On October 14, 2026, the 2-year T-Note yield rose 13 basis points to 4.92%, its highest level since September 29. Expectations of a Fed rate hike, combined with persistent inflation of 3.7%, are pushing yields upward.
Source: www.theguardian.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido com base nos dados oficiais do Departamento do Tesouro dos EUA (treasurydirect.gov ou FRED/St. Louis Fed). Se o rendimento diário do T-Note de 2 anos atingir ou superar 5,00% em qualquer pregão até 31/12/2026, resolve 'Sim'; caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 67% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 33 points, a wrong one costs about 67.