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Will the US and Iran reach a formal diplomatic agreement by December 31, 2026?

Negotiations between the US and Iran were on the radar of global markets in September 2026, with potential impact on oil prices, the… 72 opinions, 81% No

  • Yes — 19%
  • No — 81%

Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 72 opinions

Resolution rules

Negotiations between the US and Iran were on the radar of global markets in September 2026, with potential impact on oil prices, the dollar, and risk assets in Brazil and worldwide.

Source: conteudos.xpi.com.br

Frequently asked questions about this event

How is this event resolved?

Resolve 'Sim' se EUA e Irã assinarem um acordo diplomático formal (nuclear ou amplo) reconhecido por ambos os governos e confirmado por fontes oficiais (Casa Branca ou governo iraniano) até 31/12/2026; caso contrário, resolve 'Não'.

How are points scored?

Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.

Right now No has 81% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 19 points, a wrong one costs about 81.

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