Crypto · Open for opinions
Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in the US by December 31, 2026?
Traders on Polymarket price a 30% chance of approval in 2026 (up 14% at the start of the month). 33 opinions, 70% No
- Yes — 30%
- No — 70%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 33 opinions
Resolution rules
Traders on Polymarket price a 30% chance of approval in 2026 (up 14% at the start of the month). On Kalshi, the probability of enactment before October reached 64% before retreating to 53%. The Senate cloture vote (requires 60 votes) is the next hurdle.
Source: fortune.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução baseada na publicação oficial da lei no Federal Register ou anúncio oficial da Casa Branca confirmando assinatura presidencial da Clarity Act até 31/12/2026.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 70% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 30 points, a wrong one costs about 70.