World · Open for opinions
Will the 10-year US Treasury yield close above 5% at the end of October 2026?
Conflict in the Middle East pressures bond markets, with yields rising due to the energy shock and elevated inflation expectations. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Conflict in the Middle East pressures bond markets, with yields rising due to the energy shock and elevated inflation expectations.
Source: www.pbs.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolves com base no rendimento de fechamento do Treasury de 10 anos na última sessão de outubro de 2026 (31/10/2026). Fonte: U.S. Department of the Treasury (treasury.gov) ou Bloomberg.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.