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Will the Fed cut US interest rates at least once before the November 2026 midterm elections?
CME Group analysis from September 2026 discusses historical precedents of Fed interest rate adjustments in midterm election years,… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: November 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
CME Group analysis from September 2026 discusses historical precedents of Fed interest rate adjustments in midterm election years, amid growing political pressure from Trump on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Source: www.cmegroup.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o Federal Reserve anunciar redução da meta da taxa dos Fed Funds em qualquer reunião do FOMC realizada antes do dia das eleições de meio de mandato (previsto para 3 de novembro de 2026), conforme comunicado oficial em federalreserve.gov. Resolve como 'Não' caso contrário.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.