World · Open for opinions
Will the US enter a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction) by the end of 2026?
Recent articles discuss the growing risk of a US recession associated with tariffs and interest rate hikes promoted by the Fed,… 71 opinions, 70% No
- Yes — 30%
- No — 70%
Deadline: January 31, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 71 opinions
Resolution rules
Recent articles discuss the growing risk of a US recession associated with tariffs and interest rate hikes promoted by the Fed, although most experts still do not see a recession as the base scenario.
Source: newrepublic.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) divulgar crescimento negativo do PIB real dos EUA nos dois últimos trimestres de 2026 (3T26 e 4T26) em suas estimativas iniciais ou revisadas até 31 de janeiro de 2027.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 70% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 30 points, a wrong one costs about 70.