World · Open for opinions
Will the Strait of Hormuz continue to face significant maritime transit restrictions due to the conflict with Iran until December 31, 2026?
A Brookings Institution report in October 2026 stated that a prolonged conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz… 86 opinions, 62% Yes
- Yes — 62%
- No — 38%
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 86 opinions
Resolution rules
A Brookings Institution report in October 2026 stated that a prolonged conflict with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have inflated retail fuel prices and impacted U.S. agricultural supply chains, with no sign of a near-term resolution.
Source: www.brookings.edu
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução com base em relatórios oficiais de organizações como a International Maritime Organization (IMO) ou noticiário consolidado de agências internacionais (Reuters, AP). Mercado resolve 'Sim' se até 31/12/2026 o Estreito de Ormuz ainda registrar perturbações formais ao tráfego marítimo atribuídas ao conflito com o Irã; 'Não' se a rota estiver operando normalmente sem restrições de segurança ativas.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 62% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 38 points, a wrong one costs about 62.