World · Open for opinions
Will Iran's GDP contraction in 2026 exceed 5% on an annual basis?
In August 2026, Iran's GDP had already contracted by 2.7% compared to the same period last year. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
In August 2026, Iran's GDP had already contracted by 2.7% compared to the same period last year. The country has faced American commercial and financial embargoes since the beginning of the conflict, with increasing impacts on the economy.
Source: english.elpais.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se dado oficial do Banco Central do Irã (CBI) ou do FMI (imf.org) indicar contração do PIB iraniano superior a 5% no acumulado de 2026 em relação a 2025, publicado até 28/02/2027. Se não houver dado oficial disponível até essa data, o mercado será anulado.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.