Finance · Open for opinions
Will a survey or study published by February 2027 confirm that more than 70% of users of prediction market platforms in the US have a negative financial return?
New research released in September 2026 indicates that 79% of prediction market users do not obtain a positive return, with personal… 23 opinions, 52% Yes
- Yes — 52%
- No — 48%
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 23 opinions
Resolution rules
New research released in September 2026 indicates that 79% of prediction market users do not obtain a positive return, with personal finance experts warning about the use of credit cards and loans for betting.
Source: www.facebook.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolvido como 'Sim' se ao menos uma pesquisa acadêmica ou survey publicado por veículo de finanças reconhecido (ex.: Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, CFA Institute ou equivalente) apontar que 70% ou mais dos usuários de plataformas como Kalshi e Polymarket registraram perda líquida. Fonte deve ser pública e verificável.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 52% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 48 points, a wrong one costs about 52.