Finance · Open for opinions
Will the total volume of bets on political markets on Polymarket exceed $25 billion by December 31, 2026?
By April 2026, traders had wagered nearly $20 billion on Polymarket's political markets alone. 38 opinions, 55% Yes
- Yes — 55%
- No — 45%
Deadline: January 15, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 38 opinions
Resolution rules
By April 2026, traders had wagered nearly $20 billion on Polymarket's political markets alone. Political markets account for over a third of all money on the platform, despite being only 4% of available questions.
Source: thebulletin.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução: Sim se dados oficiais do Polymarket ou relatório de veículo financeiro de referência (ex.: Bloomberg, Financial Times) confirmarem que o volume acumulado em mercados políticos superou US$ 25 bilhões até 31/12/2026. Em abril de 2026 o volume já era de aproximadamente US$ 20 bilhões.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 55% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 45 points, a wrong one costs about 55.