World · Open for opinions
Will FOMC members signal in their public speeches in October 2026 that the next interest rate move will be a cut?
Several FOMC members are scheduled to share views on economic prospects at a time when the market has already priced in recent rate… 71 opinions, 70% No
- Yes — 30%
- No — 70%
Deadline: October 31, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 71 opinions
Resolution rules
Several FOMC members are scheduled to share views on economic prospects at a time when the market has already priced in recent rate changes; Bessent calls for an 'open mind' on inflation.
Source: mohamedelerian.substack.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se a maioria das declarações públicas de membros votantes do FOMC em outubro de 2026 (registradas em federalreserve.gov ou transcrições oficiais) indicar explicitamente preferência por redução de juros no próximo encontro. Em caso de ambiguidade, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 70% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 30 points, a wrong one costs about 70.