World · Open for opinions
Will the US GDP record negative growth in Q3 2026?
The US economy grew only 1.5% in Q2 2026, a pace considered anemic. 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
The US economy grew only 1.5% in Q2 2026, a pace considered anemic. With persistently high inflation and the Trump administration having few tools available before the November elections, experts assess a growing risk of economic contraction.
Source: www.pbs.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Mercado resolverá como 'Sim' se a estimativa preliminar do Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) para o PIB dos EUA no 3º trimestre de 2026 (julho–setembro) indicar taxa de crescimento anualizada negativa, conforme divulgação prevista para outubro ou novembro de 2026. Resolverá como 'Não' se o crescimento for zero ou positivo.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.