World · Open for opinions
Will the Federal Reserve make at least one interest rate cut between September and December 2026?
Polymarket data shows a 28% probability for three consecutive pauses (Sep–Nov–Dec), while scenarios with at least one cut account… 20 opinions, 50% Yes
- Yes — 50%
- No — 50%
Deadline: December 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 20 opinions
Resolution rules
Polymarket data shows a 28% probability for three consecutive pauses (Sep–Nov–Dec), while scenarios with at least one cut account for the majority of bets, reflecting the tension between persistent inflation and robust employment growth.
Source: polymarket.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolução com base nos comunicados oficiais do FOMC das reuniões de setembro, novembro e dezembro de 2026 (federalreserve.gov). Resolve 'Sim' se a taxa-alvo dos Fed Funds for reduzida em ao menos 0,25 p.p. em qualquer uma dessas reuniões.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Yes has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.