World · Open for opinions
Will US inflation as measured by PCE exceed 4% per year in any month between October 2026 and January 2027?
PCE accelerated to 3.6% in September 2026 (from 3.4% in August), driven by fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict and rising… 89 opinions, 67% No
- Yes — 33%
- No — 67%
Deadline: February 28, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 89 opinions
Resolution rules
PCE accelerated to 3.6% in September 2026 (from 3.4% in August), driven by fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict and rising service costs.
Source: www.theguardian.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve 'Sim' se o índice PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) divulgado pelo Bureau of Economic Analysis dos EUA registrar variação anual igual ou superior a 4,0% em qualquer um dos meses de outubro/2026, novembro/2026, dezembro/2026 ou janeiro/2027. Resolve 'Não' caso a variação anual fique abaixo de 4,0% em todos esses meses. Fonte: BEA (bea.gov).
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 67% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 33 points, a wrong one costs about 67.