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What will be the Fed's decision at the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Following the 25 bps hike in September 2026, the Fed signaled that inflation remains above target. 38 opinions, 50% Rate hold
- New interest rate hike (≥25 bps) — 34%
- Rate hold — 50%
- Interest rate cut (≥25 bps) — 16%
Deadline: December 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC · 38 opinions
Resolution rules
Following the 25 bps hike in September 2026, the Fed signaled that inflation remains above target. The future interest rate trajectory depends on inflation trends, the effects of tariffs, and the economic impact of the conflict with Iran.
Source: fortune.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve conforme o comunicado oficial do Federal Reserve após a reunião do FOMC de dezembro de 2026, disponível em federalreserve.gov. A opção vencedora é determinada pela variação anunciada na taxa-alvo dos fed funds em relação ao nível vigente após novembro de 2026.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now Rate hold has 50% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 50 points, a wrong one costs about 50.