World · Open for opinions
Will the CFTC open a formal lawsuit against Kalshi or Polymarket for wash trading by November 30, 2026?
Consider sanctionary acts or official proceedings by the US derivatives authority between 10/08 and 11/30. 79 opinions, 59% No
- Yes — 41%
- No — 59%
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 79 opinions
Resolution rules
Consider sanctionary acts or official proceedings by the US derivatives authority between 10/08 and 11/30.
Source: vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 08/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 30/11/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se a CFTC emitir autuação, ação civil ou processo formal contra Kalshi ou Polymarket por suposto wash participação até 30/11/2026, conforme comunicado em cftc.gov ou noticiado por Reuters ou Bloomberg. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 59% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 41 points, a wrong one costs about 59.