World · Open for opinions
Will the US reach a negotiated agreement to end the conflict with Iran by April 30, 2027?
The conflict between the US and Iran, which began in February 2026 and centered on the Strait of Hormuz, weighs on oil prices and… 89 opinions, 72% No
- Yes — 28%
- No — 72%
Deadline: April 30, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC · 89 opinions
Resolution rules
The conflict between the US and Iran, which began in February 2026 and centered on the Strait of Hormuz, weighs on oil prices and global inflation. With Democrats winning majorities in both chambers of the US Congress in the midterm elections (November 2026), Bruegel analysts assess
Source: www.bruegel.org
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Resolve como 'Sim' se o governo dos EUA e o Irã anunciarem oficialmente um cessar-fogo permanente ou acordo de paz mediado — confirmado por declaração oficial da Casa Branca, do Departamento de Estado ou de organismo internacional (ONU/IAEA) — até 30 de abril de 2027. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 72% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 28 points, a wrong one costs about 72.