World · Open for opinions
Will any US state regulator issue an order against election prediction markets on Kalshi by November 15, 2026?
US state election authorities have intensified the debate on the regulation of prediction markets in political disputes. 81 opinions, 65% No
- Yes — 35%
- No — 65%
Deadline: November 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC · 81 opinions
Resolution rules
US state election authorities have intensified the debate on the regulation of prediction markets in political disputes.
Source: vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com
Frequently asked questions about this event
How is this event resolved?
Janela de apuração: de 18/10/2026 (00:00, horário de Brasília) até 15/11/2026 (23:59). Fatos, anúncios ou eventos anteriores ao início da janela não contam. Resolve como 'Sim' se algum tribunal ou regulador estadual dos EUA emitir ordem formal ou liminar suspendendo os contratos de mercados preditivos eleitorais da Kalshi ou Polymarket até 15/11/2026, conforme noticiado por Reuters, Bloomberg ou AP. Caso contrário, resolve como 'Não'.
How are points scored?
Points depend on the share of votes your side had when you gave your opinion. Being right earns 100 minus that share. Being wrong costs that share.
Right now No has 65% of the votes: an opinion on it that turns out right earns about 35 points, a wrong one costs about 65.